WITA’s Friday Exchange Podcast: Turning up the Screws, Sour Grape Tariffs, Poison Pills, and the Great Diversification
In the latest episode of the Friday Exchange, former negotiators talk about the great diversification and global tariff de-escalation, the “new” India – EU trade agreement and potential for a U.S.-India trade deal, the U.S. turning up the screws on its trading partners, the UK and Canadian “business” deals with China, renewed U.S. tensions with Korea and Canada, weaponized bilateral trade deals, and more.
Introduction: Kenneth Levinson, CEO, WITA – The International Trade Membership Association
Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade Representative
Mark Linscott, Senior Advisor at the Asia Group and the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum; former Assistant USTR for South and Central Asia and before that WTO and Multilateral Affairs
Daniel Mullaney, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle East
Chris Padilla, Senior Advisor, Brunswick Group; former Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade
Joe Damond, Chair of International Trade Policy & Global Life Sciences, Crowell Global Advisors; former Deputy Assistant USTR for Asia
Watch the Video on YouTube | Listen on Spotify or Apple Podcasts
Recorded at 9:00 AM ET on 1/30/2026 | WITA
WTO Matters: Core Functions of the WTO
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Featured Speakers:
Padideh Ala’i, Professor of Law at American University Washington College of Law
Eugenia Lizano, Chief of Section-Trade Policies Review, Americas, World Trade Organization
Roy Santana, Secretary of the Council for Trade in Goods, World Trade Organization
Santiago Wills, Director – General Council and Trade Negotiations Committee Division, World Trade Organization
Moderator: Angela Ellard, Senior Advisor (non-resident), Center for Strategic and International Studies; former Deputy Director General, World Trade Organization
Watch the Full Event Video Here
AI as a Trade Weapon in the Great Power Contest
Artificial intelligence (AI) has already started reshaping the global trade landscape. It has the potential to become a powerful driver of inclusive, trade-led growth if economies invest in the right, enabling policies and cooperate to prevent fragmentation of the regulations governing the digital economy. But given AI’s broad application and its close ties to future national capabilities, including military ones, the competition to lead in the field has intensified to the extent that it now makes multilateral cooperation to craft global AI rules nearly impossible.
AI’s impact on trade
AI’s impact on trade can be grouped into three broad categories: Growth in AI-related supply chains; the commodification of trade-related processes; and rising international trade in AI-driven or AI-assisted products.
When it comes to supply chains, some countries are already experiencing a macroeconomic impact from their role in building AI infrastructure, most notably Taiwan. In September 2025, Taiwan’s exports reached US$70.2 billion, a 30.5% year‑on‑year increase and the highest monthly figure ever recorded — driven largely by AI‑related products. Taiwan’s economy is projected to grow close to 6% in 2025, far exceeding earlier forecasts, with officials explicitly citing the AI semiconductor boom as the main driver. South Korea is experiencing similar gains, positioning itself to dominate the AI memory chip market.
There is mounting evidence that AI is helping to reduce international trade frictions arising from customs clearance, cultural barriers, compliance with regulations, and, increasingly, changing tariff regimes. In the case of DHL, predictive analytics, powered by AI, reduced delays and cut costs by managing inventory levels, forecasting demand, and optimizing delivery routes. Small and medium-sized enterprises, which often underutilize trade agreements due to their lack of capacity to cope with complex trade policy documentation, could benefit disproportionately as AI lowers some barriers to entry by automating compliance tasks.
AI is also driving an international exchange of new products. Consider China’s AI toy market, which reached RMB24.6 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to RMB29 billion in 2025. The impact of AI could be even more pronounced in the services trade. By lowering the cost of services, such as legal advice, AI could drive a surge in cross-border sales, potentially rivaling the effect on trade volumes in goods that resulted from China’s integration into the global trading system in the 1990s.
As with previous technological breakthroughs, the power of AI to transform economic capabilities makes the race to lead the industry a matter of significant geopolitical importance. Vastly different approaches to AI regulation have emerged. In its early evolution phase, the basic requirement of AI is already producing a bifurcating effect on the global economy, and in some cases, intensifying existing competition for resources.
Read the Full White Paper Here
01/27/2026 | Stewart Patterson | Hinrich Foundation
The Global Trade Shift That Could Blindside CEOs
Over the past year, CEOs and their senior leadership teams have become far more adept at navigating shifting tariff regimes on traded goods. But there’s an emerging blind spot on many CEO radars: restrictions on cross-border services.
The potential impact on businesses is immense. The value of cross-border services will expand at double the rate of global goods in the coming years, according to BCG projections, reaching $11.7 trillion by 2032.
Such growth—and the increased exposure to geopolitical disruption that comes with it—isn’t limited to service-intensive sectors like finance, tourism, streaming media, and technology. Across goods-producing industries, CEOs are embedding more digital and data-driven services into their business models to differentiate offerings, build high-margin revenue streams, and innovate more efficiently.
Few companies have mapped their vulnerability to nontariff restrictions on cross-border services—let alone taken steps to reduce the risks.
Yet, as our more than 300 conversations with C-suite leaders over the past year have made increasingly clear, few companies have mapped their vulnerability to nontariff restrictions on cross-border services—let alone taken steps to reduce risks and turn that resilience into a growth driver.
To understand the full extent of their company’s potential exposure, CEOs must first recognize the tools policymakers use to regulate the movement of services across borders. CEOs then need to take concrete actions to avoid being caught off guard by the next wave of geopolitical trade disruptions.
01/26/26 | Aparna Bharadwaj & Cristián Rodríguez-Chiffelle | Boston Consulting Group
USMCA Review: Turning Point for North American Integration
The 2026 review of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) will be a turning point for North American integration. This is not merely a technical update of chapters and annexes: it will unfold in a moment of heightened protectionism, intensified great-power competition, and domestic political pressure in Washington. For Mexico, the challenge is twofold: to preserve legal certainty and market access under the agreement, while using the review as a platform to strengthen supply chains, modernize trade rules, and consolidate North America as a competitive and resilient economic bloc.
The Geopolitical Environment
Early 2026 is defined by a tougher US foreign policy posture toward Latin America. The region is increasingly framed through a “hemispheric security” lens where three concerns converge: migration management, transnational organized crime, and China’s expanding economic footprint. Within this broader landscape, Venezuela has served as a catalyst. The detention of Nicolás Maduro during a US operation, subsequent actions targeting Venezuelan oil flows, and maritime interdictions in the Caribbean have conveyed a clear message: Washington’s threshold for direct action has shifted. Regardless of political interpretations, the strategic consequence is undeniable — security priorities can override economic routines, and trade tools may be leveraged in service of geopolitical objectives.
For Mexico, Venezuela matters primarily through indirect effects. First, it reinforces a model of statecraft that blends economic coercion with political pressure. Second, it heightens uncertainty across Caribbean energy routes, while increasing the strategic value of logistical alternatives inside North America — land corridors, rail expansion, and near-market industrial platforms. Third, it pushes Latin American countries to rebalance their external relationships, creating space for China to deepen its commercial, infrastructure, and technology presence across the region.
Migration is another structural driver. More restrictive processing of visas, intensified border enforcement, and a security-dominant narrative increase the probability that the USMCA review will be accompanied by parallel demands for measurable migration outcomes. In practice, this may become an implicit trade-off: tariff relief and commercial stability in exchange for stronger cooperation on border management and security.
As a result, the USMCA review must be understood as a broader negotiation where trade, security, and regional governance are increasingly intertwined.
01/26/2026 | Erick Gabriel Gonzalez Alegria | Mexico Business News
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