Are Global Value Chains Receding? The Jury Is Still Out. Key Findings from the Analysis of Deflated World Trade in Parts and Components



Guillaume Gaulier, Aude Sztulman & Deniz Ünal | CEPII

In this article, we examine the dynamics of Global Value Chains (GVCs) since the 2000s. Did it show a marked
expansion up to the Great Recession and did GVCs begin a downturn in the 2010s? To better understand the
evolution of GVCs at the world level, we use very detailed trade data for 2000 to 2016, which distinguishes different
production stages along the GVC. In particular, among intermediate goods, we focus on Parts and Components
(P&C) rather than semi-finished products since the manufacture of P&C corresponds to activities more embedded in

We control, also, for the global business cycle and price effects using an original production stages deflator
based on detailed bilateral trade unit-values. This new GVC indicator shows moderate growth over the study period
with no trend reversal. In the electronics sector, where GVCs are particularly well-developed, we observe contrasting
effects: the share in P&C trade for office machinery and computers has decreased, while it has increased in the case
of telecommunications equipment, the flagship IT revolution industry. Also, counts of clients or suppliers by stages of
production indicate higher and growing geographical diversity for P&C.

Global Value Chains Receding

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