■ The emerging competition is not generalized but likely to be most intense between a handful of specific states.
■ The hinge point of the competition will be the relationship between the architect of the rules-based order (the United States) and the leading revisionist peer competitor that is involved in the most specific disputes (China).
■ Global patterns of competition are likely to be complex and diverse, with distinct types of competition prevailing in different issue areas.
■ Managing the escalation of regional rivalries and conflicts is likely to be a major focus of U.S. statecraft.
■ Currently, the competition seems largely focused on status grievances or ambitions, economic prosperity, technological advantage, and regional influence.
■ The competition is likely to be most intense and persistent in nonmilitary areas of national advantage.
■ The postwar multilateral order provides the framework in which the emerging competition will unfold.
■ Two obvious flashpoints for the emerging competition lie in regional territorial and influence claims.
■ The emerging era is likely to involve a drawn-out combination of contestation, competition, and cooperation.
Understanding the Emerging Era of International Competition
[To view the original research paper, click here]
Copyright © 2019 Rand Corporation. All rights reserved.