Coronavirus: ‘Drop in global trade to be worse than 2008 crisis’



Andrew Walker | BBC

The World Trade Organization (WTO) is predicting a severe decline in international commerce this year.

In a new report the WTO forecasts a contraction of between 13% and 32% this year.

The wide range of possibilities reflects the uncertainties about the health crisis.

It says the impact on trade is likely to exceed the slump caused by the financial crisis just over a decade ago.

The WTO’s director general Roberto Azevedo described the figures as “ugly”.

“There is no getting round that”, he said. He said the situation was first and foremost a health crisis and he acknowledged that governments had to take steps to protect people’s lives.

“The unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself,” he added.

Relatively optimistic

A decline of 13% in trade in goods is described in the report as a relatively optimistic scenario. It reflects a steep drop in trade followed by a recovery starting in the second half of 2020.

That of course would need to be based on substantial progress over the next few months in getting on top of the health crisis.

That is obviously not guaranteed, so the report includes a much more pessimistic case which reflects a steeper initial decline and a more prolonged and incomplete recovery.

The report also warns that “the extent of uncertainty is very high, and it is well within the realm of possibilities that for both 2020 and 2021 the outcomes could be above or below these results”.


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