BENGALURU (Reuters) – A synchronised global economic slowdown is under way and any escalation in the U.S.-China trade war would trigger a sharper downturn, according to Reuters polls of hundreds of economists from around the world.
That is a major shift in sentiment from just a year ago, when economists were optimistic about a significant global upturn. But an escalation in trade tensions and tightening financial conditions have hurt activity in most economies and dragged China’s growth last year to the weakest in 28 years.
Reuters surveys over the past two years have repeatedly highlighted trade protectionism as one of the prominent downside risks for the global economy.
In the latest Reuters polls of more than 500 economists taken this month, growth this year was cut for 33 of 46 economies the respondents were asked about and left unchanged for 10. Predictions for only three smaller economies were marginally upgraded.
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