IMF Forecasts Survival of the Richest




The United States is likely to be the only large economy to emerge even richer from the COVID-19 pandemic than if the crisis had never occurred, according to the latest global economic projections released by the International Monetary Fund yesterday.

The IMF forecasts global growth of 6 percent in 2021, an increase of 0.5 percent from its January projection. Of major countries, India is expected to see the strongest growth, 11.3 percent in 2021—after a steep 7.1 percent contraction in 2020.

The news is worse for countries further down the income ladder, as policies enacted by rich countries—namely bilateral deals that have effectively ring-fenced the global vaccine rollout—threaten to slow down their economic recovery. Indeed, out of advanced, emerging, and low-income economies, only those in the latter group are expected to see a bigger drop in GDP than they endured during the 2008 financial crisis.

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