Italian statesman and writer Niccolo Machiavelli said that power (the Lion) and deception (the Fox) are two essential means for the conduct of foreign policy and international relations. Rulers should always seek advantages while defending the interests of their state in order to ensure its survival. However, Machiavelli faltered in his notion of foxing other states just to ruthlessly pursue one’s own self-interest as a ruler. Because, a ruler who always foxes others is likely to be outfoxed in return too. Machiavellian principle rests on the premise that the world is a dangerous place and at the same time it is an opportune place. The international relation is based on the intelligent calculation of one’s power and interests as against the power and interests of rivals and competitors.
This classical realist approach drove the present President of the United States of America, Donald Trump, to levy tariffs of his liking on all the countries having trade relations with the USA. He announced a series of sweeping new tariffs by invoking the unprecedented powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) on imported goods on April 2, 2025 widely orchestrated as “Liberation Day” by his newly sworn-in administration to signal a shift in trade policy and move toward protectionism. As per President Trump, this executive order of imposing uneven tariffs across different countries in a subjective manner and not allowing them to impose commensurate amounts of ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on US goods is part of his much-touted election campaign of MAGA (Make America Great Again). A universal 10% tariff took effect on April 5 for all the countries, in any case.
Trump’s tariffs triggered a trade war with most of the US friends and its strategic foes. The trade war escalated when Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Mexico, 35% on Canada, 39% on Switzerland, 40% on Myanmar, 41% on Syria, 50% on both India and Brazil. It also escalated the China – United States trade war when US baseline tariffs on Chinese goods peaked at 145% and Chinese tariffs on US goods reached 125% in retaliation. In a truce expiring on November 9, the US reduced its tariffs to 30% on Chinese imports while China reduced that to 10% on American imports. India has been singled out by President Trump to slap an additional 25% penalty on the already existing 25% tariff for purchasing Russian oil during the ongoing Russia-Ukrain war and may go even higher in days to come. India has declared Trump’s tariff as being ‘unjustified and unreasonable’ as import of Russian oil after the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine war (in 2022) took place because traditional supplies were diverted to Europe. The United States at that time actively encouraged such imports by India for strengthening global energy markets stability. The former US Ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, confirms the same.
The self-contradictory stance of the US administration got exposed when India was singled out for purchasing 39.9% of Russian oil to meet its domestic needs and to stabilize the world price in 2023 while China purchased 49% of it and both the European Union and the USA are still doing trade with Russia. Vladimir Putin, Russian President, confirms the same that Russia’s trade with the USA is up 20% after the Trump administration took charge in bilateral Alaska meet on August 15, 2025. This self-contradictory US stance not only fuels the trade war but also sneers at the strategic relations of the USA with its major allies. While announcing a flurry of tariffs, multilateral organizations such as the WTO (World Trade Organization) were never consulted. This has already upended the rule-based international order and easy-to-understand reciprocal behaviors between the nation-states. Retaliatory tariffs and trade barriers imposed by the United States without the consent of opposite counterparts are also jeopardizing the bilateral relations of the United States with many countries as simmering discontent is veering them toward seeking a ‘New World Order’ that doesn’t face the unilateral imposition of US decision anymore.
Brazilian President Lula da Silva, as a mark of protest against crippling tariffs of 50% against his country, retaliated by saying that US President Trump was not elected to be the emperor of the world. President Trump linked the astronomical tariff threat on Brazil to what he described as a “witch hunt” trial against Brazil’s right-wing former president, Jair Bolsonaro thereby making tariffs a chastising instrument to follow ‘carrot and stick’ policy to turn the events within any country in his favor. Brazilian President Lula da Silva had an extensive talk with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on promoting trade partnership and on emerging scenario of geopolitics in the world. Brazil has already petitioned the World Trade Organization for consultations to help alleviate the steep tariffs imposed on Brazil by the United States. In the same vein, the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, had a telephonic talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin on further deepening the already existing “Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership” between Russia and India. In the meantime, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has hinted at reviving the Russia-India-China (RIC) troika. The idea of trilateral cooperation that came into being in the 1990s and was institutionalized in 2002. The last meeting of the RIC leaders took place in 2019 on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Osaka, Japan. The revival of RIC will counter the terror unleashed by Trump’s tariff and will ease the dependence of major countries on the United States. India and China are hinting at cooperating with each other in trade and commerce in response to the high-handedness of the USA.
China and India should be partners, not adversaries, says foreign minister of China Wang Yi while visiting New Delhi on August 19, 2025. Foreign Minister of India, S. Jayshankar in a bilateral meeting with Wang Yi highlighted 3 ‘Mutuals’ to guide India-China relationship: mutual respect, mutual sensitivity and mutual interest. In the fast changing context of the US relationship with Asian powers in the backdrop of the Tariff war, India and China are pledging to work together. The US President Trump considers BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) as anti-America and, therefore, threatened to levy them with additional 10% tariffs on July 8, 2025. BRICS is a forum for cooperation comprising a group of leading emerging economies that also include Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. There are more than 30 countries which are waiting for approval to be a member state of BRICS. BRICS has two forums in it – RIC (Russia, India, China) and IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa). Some observers consider it as an alternative to the G-7 (G-8 when Russia was its part). The recent tariff war unleashed by President Trump has brought BRICS countries together more than ever before as it has its own huge market both in terms of population strength and purchasing power.
According to the World Economic Outlook report released in April by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the BRICS member countries is projected to exceed the global average in 2025. The data predicts that this group will reach 3.4% in GDP, while the world average will reach just 2.8%. Last year in 2024, BRICS collectively reached 4% GDP growth, while worldwide growth stood at 3.3%. IMF data also reveals that BRICS accounted for 40% of the global economy (measured by Purchasing Power Parity, PPP) in 2024, with projections rising to 41% in 2025. So, if BRICS member countries collectively deal with African Union, SAFTA (South American Free Trade Organization), ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations) and BIMSTEC (The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation), the economic impact of unilateral executive action of President Trump will weather away and rest of the world will have a chance to mitigate the crippling effects of one-way tariff. Trump and his supporters argue that higher tariffs will encourage many more companies to produce in the United States, because they will relocate to the USA to produce the goods and that will make them less dependent on China for imported goods.
While other economists say that the trade war hurts everyone and it will hurt the US more than other major countries both in terms of geopolitics and overall economy. Moreover, there’s no well-structured predictable plan for tariffs as the same is being used to threaten the nation-states and asking them to toe the US line as if it is a unipolar world forgetting the fact that multipolarity has already embraced the world way back in 2010 after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Nor is this planet positioned in the ‘post world war-II era’ when only two super-powers, the United States of America and the Soviet Union (Union of Soviet Socialist Republic) existed until the latter was dissolved on December 26, 1991. A bipolar world dominated by the US and the Soviet Union was characterized by cold war. The US dominance was very much present for almost two decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union and end of the cold war.
The last time the USA had imposed high tariffs on trading partners was in the 1930s that contributed to an overall decline in world trade of about 66% between 1929 and 1934. That exacerbated the Great Depression in the world economy bringing President Franklin D. Roosevelt in power, who, in 1934, signed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act that reduced tariff levels and liberalized trade with foreign governments. However, Donald Trump vows to succeed this time and he is sure that he will not backtrack in his assertion as well as action. Whether President Trump will succeed or not, it is to be seen in a year or two but it looks pretty sure that new alignment around the major powers in the multipolar world will take shape to create a new world order. Disruption in the global economy is gearing the countries to look inward, pacing up the momentum of deglobalization by rooting for both nationalism and protectionism in a much stronger way. Just like the United States, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is also promoting MIGA (Make India Great Again) by focusing on ‘Make in India’ policy and use of country-made goods. China has been doing this for a long time making more than half of the world dependent on its manufactured products.
Jeffrey Sachs, an American economist, public policy analyst and a professor at Columbia University, says that “…Tariffs are destructive for the US economy. It violates international law. It’s a breakdown of our political system in the United States. We have a constitution. We don’t have a one-person rule,” referring to powers of the Congress under Article I, Section 8 of the US Constitution. Before the final ruling of the US Supreme Court comes on the legality (and constitutionality) of Trump’s Tariffs, the world is already in new restructuring mode that the US may find it hard to accept (or be part of it) as it has already been in the habit of putting the foot down before others could for last 100 years or so. At present the difference between friends and foes has gone with the wind as the US allies are seen to have suffered more than the declared foes of the USA due to the mercantilist approach of Donald Trump in this tariff war.
The famous quote of the former US Secretary of State, Henry Alfred Kissinger is reverberating all around, “it may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.” Either way one is going to lose. In his book ‘Does America Need a Foreign Policy?’ Kissinger argues that for the foreseeable future there is little or no likelihood of the nations of Western Europe going to war with each other or with the United States, but that war is much more possible among the nations of Asia or between America and Asian powers. This is turning to be prophetic as China and India, both the Asian powers, are being blamed by the Trump administration for buying the Russian oil that is sustaining Russia in war against Ukraine in eastern Europe absolving the European Union from it completely. The Middle East is already boiling where the US has been involved with Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel and so on in one way or the other. The world order, at present, is in a fluid state with many questions raised on post-World War-II institutions such as UNO (United Nations Organization), IMF (International Monetary Forum), WTO (World Trade Organization) before it restructures itself again for another 100 years to come.
To read the opinion as it was originally published by Nepal Khabar, click here.