No Brexit more likely than a disorderly one, say economists



Jonathan Cable | Reuters

LONDON (Reuters) – The chances that Brexit will be cancelled are now greater than the chances Britain will leave the European Union without a deal, according to economists in a Reuters poll, who again pushed back their expectations for when the Bank of England will raise interest rates.

Last week, the EU delayed Brexit until the end of October, averting for now the risk of an abrupt British departure, which investors and policymakers fear would hurt both economies.

In the latest monthly Reuters survey, taken April 12-17, the median probability Britain and the EU will part ways in a disorderly fashion – where no deal is agreed – held steady at the 15 percent given in March, the lowest since Reuters began asking in July 2017.

Only one of 51 respondents gave a value over 50 percent.

“Apart from the fact that no-deal Brexit is now less likely, the path ahead is as unclear as ever. A deal (and likely a softer Brexit) still seems more likely than not,” BNP Paribas economists said. “But we are sceptical that this will happen any time soon.”

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