Reflation Frenzy Drives Historic Gap Between U.S. and Europe

02/17/2021

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James Hirai | Bloomberg

Europe is getting left in the dust like never before by the reflation frenzy across the Atlantic.

Rising energy costs are driving yields on Treasuries and German bunds higher, yet market proxies for inflation expectations in the U.S. are outpacing those in the euro area by the most in over a decade.

While the White House preps a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to boost growth, it’s a different story in the single-currency bloc where a stumbling vaccine rollout threatens to intensify a likely double-dip recession.

All this offers a historic U.S.-Europe divergence trade, for money managers like BlueBay Asset Management and Aberdeen Standard Investments.

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