As the expiry date of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) approaches, concerns are mounting across the continent that the lapse of the landmark United States trade initiative could reverse recent gains in Africa’s export diversification. The potential non-renewal of AGOA threatens to erode preferential market access for African exporters of agricultural goods, textiles, and light manufactures — sectors that have been critical to inclusive growth and employment creation.
Established in 2000, AGOA grants duty-free access to the US market for over 1,800 product lines from eligible Sub-Saharan African countries. The framework was designed to encourage industrialisation and export-led development by reducing trade barriers and incentivising investment in non-extractive sectors. However, unless the Act is renewed by the US Congress, African exporters could soon face steep tariff increases that would sharply diminish the competitiveness of their products.
According to a recent analysis by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), average tariff hikes would disproportionately impact textiles and apparel, agriculture and food, and light manufacturing—the very sectors most critical for diversifying Africa’s export portfolio. UNCTAD data, based on US International Trade Commission (USITC) figures, shows that tariffs on apparel exports could rise by 20 percentage points, while agricultural and food exports could face an average increase of 9.8 percentage points.
In 2024, total US imports from AGOA-eligible countries reached approximately $29.4 billion, with minerals and chemicals accounting for $10.2 billion, followed by metals, machinery, and transportation at $4.6 billion, and agriculture and food at $2.7 billion. Without AGOA, many of these exports—particularly those in value-added segments—would be exposed to tariffs that could significantly reduce their price competitiveness in the American market.
For economies such as Lesotho, Eswatini, and Kenya, where apparel exports to the United States have been major sources of formal employment, the potential expiry presents a critical policy dilemma. In countries like Ethiopia and Madagascar, AGOA has stimulated the development of industrial parks and attracted foreign direct investment in labour-intensive manufacturing. The removal of preferential access could slow the progress of such industrialisation efforts, amplifying vulnerabilities in economies still transitioning away from commodity dependence.
Yet, while uncertainty surrounds the stance of the current US administration regarding AGOA’s renewal, China’s recent introduction of a tariff-free trade policy with 53 African countries represents a shifting trade horizon that could reshape Africa’s global partnerships. Under this arrangement, African nations can export a wide range of goods to China duty-free, providing an alternative and potentially more predictable market for diversification. Beijing’s policy aligns with its broader strategy of strengthening South–South cooperation and supporting industrial development across the continent through initiatives such as the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).
This evolving dynamic signals that Africa’s trade future may increasingly depend on multipolar engagement—diversifying not only products but also partners. Rather than viewing AGOA’s potential expiry as an existential setback, many African economists argue that it could serve as a moment to deepen intra-African collaboration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). The AfCFTA, launched in 2021, seeks to integrate a market of over 1.4 billion people and aims to increase intra-African trade by over 50% in the coming decade through harmonised tariffs and reduced non-tariff barriers.
By leveraging both the AfCFTA and emerging trade partnerships with China and other regions of the Global South, African economies could strengthen regional value chains and reduce exposure to the policy uncertainties of external markets. However, experts caution that this strategy requires far greater coordination among African governments, private sectors, and regional economic communities to ensure equitable participation and avoid replicating dependency patterns under new partners.
UNCTAD’s analysis underscores that AGOA has played a significant role in reshaping Africa’s export structure by encouraging diversification beyond extractive industries. Yet, it also notes that such gains remain fragile without complementary industrial and trade policies at the continental and national levels. In the absence of renewal, the report cautions, “the expiry of AGOA could undermine progress toward export diversification and inclusive growth in Sub-Saharan Africa.”
The decision over AGOA’s future now rests with the United States Congress, where debates over trade preferences and domestic competitiveness are intensifying. For Africa, however, the challenge extends beyond the corridors of Washington. It is about defining a sovereign and sustainable trade future that leverages continental strengths, regional solidarity, and global partnerships grounded in mutual respect and long-term developmental priorities.
Whether AGOA is renewed or not, African governments and private sectors face an inflection point: to either remain dependent on external preferences or to craft a new architecture of trade and production rooted in African agency, innovation, and collaboration.
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