China Meat Consumption Expected to Rebound in 2021
Driven by higher estimates for pork, the China total meat import forecasts for both 2020 and 2021 are revised 4 and 1 percent higher, respectively. While pork import growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2020, it nevertheless exceeded expectations and results in a more bullish outlook for 2021. The impact of African swine fever (ASF) is expected to have reached its zenith in 2020, pressuring consumption and increasing the country’s reliance on meat imports. Despite the elevated pace of trade, China meat consumption in 2020 fell to its lowest level in more than a decade. In 2021, higher estimates for both China pork production and imports lead total meat consumption up 2 percent from the prior forecast. However, total meat consumption is still expected to be below pre-ASF levels.
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