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Trump Wants a Trade Deal, Not a Trade War. He May Get One.

01/31/2025

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Wendy Cutler | The New York Times

Following is an excerpt from a piece written by Wendy Cutler, Vice President of the Asia Society Policy Institute.

By all measures, China seems like the perfect target for Donald Trump’s tariff hikes. It has the largest trade surplus in goods of all U.S. trading partners, it employs a series of unfair trade practices to gain a competitive advantage, and it has failed to live up to the terms of the trade agreement that it signed with President Trump in his first term.

Still, Mr. Trump hasn’t imposed new tariffs on China. The 10 percent tariff hike he threatened to impose for its lax fentanyl policies is significantly less than what he promised on the campaign trail. Moreover, it is substantially lower than the 25 percent tariff he may soon put in place against Canada and Mexico.

To be clear, this does not mean that tariffs on Chinese products are off the table. Instead, it means that he may be playing for the biggest possible win, albeit with a significant risk of failure. China is a formidable negotiating partner, so success is far from guaranteed. In the meantime, he seems to be directing his retribution toward America’s neighbors, with whom he has more leverage, making an early victory on trade more feasible.

Curbing immigration is a key priority for Mr. Trump, so linking tariff threats to efforts to seal the border is not surprising. However, more factors are at play. Both Canada and Mexico, separately, have over three-quarters of their exports destined for the United States, so they are highly dependent on the U.S. market. This dependence provides the United States considerable leverage, and may give Mr. Trump his quick tariff win.

China, on the other hand, presents more challenges. During Mr. Trump’s first term, Beijing demonstrated its resolve against U.S. tariffs every step of the way. It shrewdly focused its retaliatory duties on politically sensitive sectors, such as agriculture. Since then, it has developed an even bigger retaliatory toolbox, including holding back exports of critical minerals that the United States depends on…

To read the full guest essay as it was published by The New York Times, click here.