Journalists are reaching for the wrong thesaurus when trying to describe the World Trade Organization (WTO) at its Ministerial Conference in Yaoundé. As a result, they come up with words like “broken” (Politico) or “moribund” (Financial Times).
There are a few honourable exceptions, such as Alan Beattie, also in the Financial Times, with his brilliant “stratospherically high words-to-action ratio” on talk about what to do with the WTO.
Is the WTO broken? Yes, but only partly, in the sense of a car that is broken with somewhere between a damaged satnav and a misfiring spark plug. It can still transport us, not as fast or as accurately as we would like, but at least it can get us to some places where we want to be.
Did Donald Trump break the WTO? No.
Is it near death? Let’s look at its vital signs.
$35 trillion per year in international trade
The WTO’s purpose is to help trade to flow as freely as possible. It continues to do that. Close to US$35 trillion-worth in goods and services flows around the world annually, most of it within WTO rules.
Could it do better? Of course. But $35 trillion is a lot already.
The WTO helps it avoid too much disruption* because hundreds of delegates from its member governments meet at the Geneva headquarters every day to examine a wide range of issues, from Japan revoking “zinc bacitracin and calcium halofuginone polystyrenesulfonate as a feed additive” to the Czech Republic changing its laws on “audiovisual works and support for cinematography”.
*The WTO cannot be responsible for wars that shut down critical shipping lanes.
In barely three months, from January 1 up to the time of writing (March 26), 2,277 documents were circulated in the WTO:
- 1,531 — by far the largest number of documents — were “notifications” as members shared information with each other on changes to their trade measures and policies. Other countries can and do comment or seek clarification on the notifications, and sometimes the measures are changed as a result
- 222 were general communications on a range of subjects from members, the WTO Secretariat or committee chairs
- 105 were documents for convening meetings, with draft agendas or proposed topics for discussion
- 67 were minutes and other records of meetings
- 36 were legal documents, particularly changes to countries’ commitments to open their markets or limit subsidies on goods and services
- 19 were proposals, recommendations, discussion papers or conclusions
- 18 recorded decisions.
In that period, not counting in Yaoundé, about 150 meetings were held in Geneva, according to the public calendar.
That’s an awful lot of activity for a dead or nearly dead body. And it’s not as if it was unproductive as that $35 trillion per year headline figure shows. Without all that activity, trade would stutter, costs would rise and we’d all suffer.
Operating system
Why the disconnect between perception and reality? The headlines are all about negotiations and settling legal disputes.
When negotiations are deadlocked and dispute settlement seems to be blocked (it’s actually handicapped rather than blocked, see footnote), the impression is that the WTO is going nowhere. Most journalists assume that’s all there is.
No one bothers to look at the routine, technical work ticking over quietly and helping trade to continue to flow smoothly. Bob Wolfe calls it the operating system of world trade.
In a way, this is the familiar distinction between activity at the political and technical levels. If the politicians (and senior officials) seem to have run out of highway, the technicians can still keep the engine running.
Is the US engaged? Disengaged? Re-engaged?
The disconnect applies equally to how the US is seen. At the headline level, it seems to be (or to have been) disengaged.
This comes from the Trump’s disregard for international trade rules, and his administration’s negative rhetoric about the WTO specifically, and international organisations in general. Plus the US withholding funds from the WTO and other organisations, and the block on the Appellate Body (which pre-dates Trump) .
As Bob and I wrote (mainly Bob):
“It’s not that Trump doesn’t like the WTO — he likes it better than most multilateral organisations.
“With the US cutting funding and even pulling out of many organisations, what remains of global governance appears fractured.
“But Trump engaged with the WTO at a working level, sending a new ambassador, and paying his government’s outstanding contributions to the budget. The WTO is in a better position than many other international organisations.”
The headlines also come from Trump adopting tariffs as an all-purpose weapon, “wielding them arbitrarily and with nonsensical excuses at friend and foe alike,” as we wrote in a Globe and Mail opinion piece. “Trump trampled over treaties the US had itself negotiated.”
Even that doesn’t mean the US as a whole disengaged from the WTO.
The problem is most people have only noticed the US papers on WTO reform. They haven’t read the reports from the Norwegian Ambassador on the months of conversation among all WTO members. Few realised that the US papers were part of that conversation. We might not like some of the US’s comments in the papers, but they weren’t isolated.
So from the headline perspective, at first the US was fiercely critical of the WTO and appeared to withdraw. It was disengaged.
Then came a paper on reform in December, followed by “Further Perspectives” a few days ago. The conclusion? The US was re-engaging.
But that’s only based on a handful of points sticking up above the surface. The two new US papers did not appear out of the blue. The US has participated all along in the talks among the whole membership on WTO reform. It’s not as if the US turned away in a huff and then returned, banging on the door. The US was a lot more active below the surface of the headlines.
Since US President Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, the US has submitted over 800 documents to the WTO. They were mainly notifications as we’d expect, showing that the US has been fully engaged in its critically important obligation to be transparent.
It has attended almost all meetings. It has spoken in 14 of the 15 meetings of the Dispute Settlement Body (comprising all WTO members), including reports for transparency — in case anyone had thought the US had ditched dispute settlement.
The truth is that the US has been engaged in the WTO all along. Its attitude has changed, but that’s not the same as not engaging.
Journalists and commentators will do us all a favour by being more accurate in their reporting. There’s still plenty of room to be sensational; it’s just harder work. They would also enhance their credibility.
Footnote: dispute settlement
Dispute settlement is handicapped rather than blocked. The US is preventing the Appellate Body from functioning, but first-stage panel rulings proceed as normal.
Appeals is a different matter. A group of 60 countries have found an alternative way of appealing under existing dispute settlement rules, through arbitration. So for disputes within that group, a second opinion is possible.
By appealing first-stage panel rulings to an Appellate Body that cannot function, the US and others can shoot a dispute case “into the void” where it disappears.
But they cannot prevent appeals by arbitration among the participating countries.
To read the article as it was published by The Trade β Blog, please click here.