An important part of global efforts to vaccinate the world has been the work of the World Health Organization, Gavi, CEPI and UNICEF to provide an array of vaccines through early support of research and procurement of large quantities of doses for distribution to countries participating in the program including 92 low- and middle-income economies through COVAX. The COVAX objective for 2021 has been distribution of around two billion doses. While a large amount of money has been raised for vaccine purchases, additional needs in 2021 for COVAX are around $2 billion.
This Thursday, the United States and Gavi will co-host an event seeking additional funding for COVAX. The U.S. State Department press release from April 12 is copied below. See U.S. Department of State, United States to Host Event to Launch the 2021 COVAX Investment Opportunity, April 12, 2021, https://www.state.gov/united-states-to-host-event-to-launch-the-2021-covax-investment-opportunity/.
“On Thursday, April 15, 2021 at 8:00 a.m. EDT the United States will co-host the launch of the Investment Opportunity for the Gavi COVAX Advance Market Commitment (COVAX AMC), a virtual convening to galvanize additional resources and commitments to support global COVID-19 vaccination.
“Secretary of State Antony Blinken, USAID Acting Administrator Gloria Steele, and Gavi Board Chair José Manuel Barroso will bring together world leaders, the private sector, civil society, and technical experts to advance and accelerate global access to COVID-19 vaccines. Secretary Antony Blinken will offer opening remarks.
“Equitable access to safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines across the globe is critical for reducing the tragic loss of life, ending the pandemic, bolstering the U.S. and global economy, and keeping Americans safe at home and abroad. By pooling donor resources, the COVAX AMC provides access to safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines for 92 low-and middle-income economies, supporting the delivery of quality, lifesaving vaccines to those most in need and helping to contain the spread of COVID-19 and emerging variants.
“Thanks to Congress and the generosity of the American people, the U.S. government has already contributed $2 billion to support the COVAX AMC, out of a total planned $4 billion through 2022. The United States is currently the largest donor to COVAX, making up nearly forty percent of the COVAX AMC funding commitments announced to date.
Gavi’s press release of 29 March 2021 announcing the event is copied below and provides the needs that hopefully will be met by Thurday’s event. See Gavi, United States to host launch event for Gavi COVAX AMC 2021 investment opportunity, 29 March 2021, https://www.gavi.org/news/media-room/united-states-host-launch-event-gavi-covax-amc-2021-investment-opportunity.
“Geneva, 29 March 2021 – The United States government announced today that it will host the launch of the Investment Opportunity for the Gavi COVAX Advance Market Commitment (AMC). The virtual event, which will take place in April, will be co-hosted by José Manuel Barroso, Chair of the Gavi Board, and the Secretary of State and USAID Administrator on behalf of the United States. It will bring together world leaders, the private sector, civil society and key technical partners to present the case for additional resources for the Gavi COVAX AMC.
“Country demand for COVID-19 vaccines has increased significantly in light of new COVID-19 variants, and the need for additional financing has become more urgent. In addition to committing US$ 4 billion to support Gavi’s COVID-19 related work, the United States is a long-standing supporter of the Alliance. It was one of Gavi’s original six donors and has contributed more than US$ 2.7 billion to Gavi’s core work since 2000.
“’We welcome U.S. leadership in hosting the launch of the Gavi COVAX AMC Investment Opportunity,’ said José Manuel Barroso, Gavi Board Chair. ‘The United States has been a key Gavi partner for more than two decades, playing a critical role in helping the Alliance expand access to lifesaving immunisations for the most vulnerable around the world. Its recent contribution of $4 billion for procurement and delivery of COVID-19 vaccines for lower-income countries has made the United States Gavi’s top donor and a leader in the global pandemic response. With U.S. financial and diplomatic support, Gavi is very well positioned to mobilize the funds and the doses we need to end the acute phase of the pandemic.’
“The Gavi COVAX AMC is an innovative mechanism that seeks to provide access to up to 1.8 billion donor-funded doses of COVID-19 vaccines for 92 lower-income economies. In order to achieve that goal and build on the contributions made by donors so far, Gavi will be seeking at least US$ 2 billion in additional funding for the AMC in 2021. The Investment Opportunity will outline how Gavi will use this funding to support equitable access around the world, thus helping end the acute stage of this pandemic. The Investment Opportunity also looks ahead to the future, describing how to address the pandemic as it continues to evolve.
“’As the United States has made clear through its Gavi partnership and commitments to global health security, no one is safe until everyone is safe,’ said Dr Seth Berkley, CEO of Gavi. ‘Gavi is thrilled to co-host the launch of the Investment Opportunity with the United States. With new donor funding, we will be able to procure up to 1.8 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses for lower-income countries. Strong U.S. support for the AMC is a reminder that COVAX offers the fastest, most comprehensive way out of the acute phase of the global pandemic.’
“’The emergence of new, more transmissible COVID-19 variants makes fair global access to vaccines more important than ever to protect the most vulnerable, reduce the prevalence of disease and slow down viral mutation.’ said Dr Richard Hatchett, Chief Executive Officer of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), which manages COVAX vaccine research and development. ‘Equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines will benefit the entire world, so I’m delighted that the U.S. will help COVAX to secure additional donor funding for lower-income countries.’
“Hon. Kwaku Agyeman-Manu, Minister of Health of Ghana, which took one the first deliveries of COVAX-supported vaccine doses, remarked that ‘this is about fairness, about justice, and about bringing a swift end to the pandemic. COVID-19 has affected all of us, and we must protect at risk populations everywhere if we are ever going to see a return to normal. We will only recover fully if we recover together and with its support for COVAX, the United States is helping set the course for a safer, more resilient world.’
“The Gavi COVAX AMC is a central part of the COVAX Facility, the global pooled procurement mechanism designed and administered by Gavi. Thanks to the support of COVAX AMC donors, coupled with the demand and resources of 191 participating economies, the Facility has already begun to deliver doses – the majority to lower-income countries – as part of the largest and most rapid global vaccine rollout in history.
“COVAX, the vaccines pillar of the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator, is co-convened by Gavi, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), and the World Health Organization (WHO) – working in partnership with UNICEF as a key delivery partner, developed and developing country vaccine manufacturers, the World Bank, and others. It is the only global initiative that is working with governments and manufacturers to ensure COVID-19 vaccines are available worldwide to both higher-income and lower-income countries.”
Challenges to COVID vaccines through COVAX from concerns over AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson
A large portion of total vaccine doses expected in 2021 through COVAX is from AstraZeneca/Serum Institute of India and from Johnson & Johnson. AstraZeneca has had early production issues and the Serum Institute of India (which licenses the AstraZeneca vaccine for production) has curtailed exports in March and April (and possibly longer) because of the large increases in new COVID-19 infections in India and a redirection of production of vaccine doses for use in India. The AstraZeneca vaccine (from AstraZeneca and from the Serum Institute) constitute the bulk of doses expected in the first half of 2021 by COVAX and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is expected to be a major supply source in the second half of 2021 as well as Novavax (either produced by Novavax or by license from the Serum Institute. However, both the AstraZeneca vaccine and the Johnson & Johnson vaccine have seen temporary stoppage of use by one or more countries flowing from a number of serious blood cot situations for patients who have taken the vaccine (causation under investigation). The AstraZeneca vaccine, which has been available for longer and under more scrutiny, has been limited in terms of age eligibility in a number of countries at this point. The AstraZeneca vaccine is the lowest priced vaccine (Novavax has an identical price to COVAX of $3.00/dose but is not yet approved). See UNICEF, COVID-19 vaccine market dashboard, https://www.unicef.org/supply/covid-19-vaccine-market-dashboard (prices). COVAX has a $3.00/dose ceiling price, so it is assumed that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine is similarly priced because of the pricing cap used by COVAX. With options, purchase agreements with COVAX have AstraZeneca/Serum Institute supplying some 700 million doses, Johnson & Johnson 500 million doses and Novavax (if approved) 1.1 billion doses. Id (COVID-19 vaccine supply agreements).
The challenge for COVAX and the low- and middle-income countries dependent on supplies from COVAX is the cost and availability of supplies if delays in shipments from the Serum Institute of India are prolonged or if there develops hesitancy in using vaccines which, while approved by many countries, carry some additional risk of serious blood clots. The prices recorded by the UNICEF data base show all other vaccines as significantly higher cost than the three supplying large quantities to COVAX. This suggests much larger financial needs to acquire the doses needed to address the “acute stage” of vaccination — 20% of populations representing health care and those at high risk — if COVAX must change sourcing for the major part of its vaccine doses. It also raises questions about the ability of other vaccines to fill the gap volume-wise in 2021 if major vaccines from AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson are not widely accepted or if exports are delayed for months out of India for each of AstraZeneca, Johnson & Johnson and Novavax (if approved).
While the event on Thursday will be focused on raising funds to meet the perceived needs of COVAX at the present time, those needs may be significantly larger in the coming months depending on developments.
Other funding and supply options
While the COVAX effort has been developed to handle the acute phase through contributions, the vaccination needs to get the world fully vaccinated are a multiple of the doses that COVAX is focused on procuring in 2021-2022.
The World Bank has earmarked $12 billion for vaccines and infrastructure for vaccinations for the world’s needy. Many low- and middle-income countries are working with suppliers directly or with Individual countries to obtain doses outside of the volumes expected from COVAX. Suppliers alone or in conjunction with governments have been working to license other producers and to ramp up production so that, depending on approvals of various vaccines, global production by the end of 2021 could be 10-15 billion doses. For example, the Quad countries (United States, Japan, India and Australia) have announced a plan to expand production in India to supply around one billion doses (2021-2022) to countries in the Indo-Pacific region paid for by Quad members and distributed by Australia. The UNICEF vaccine dashboard shows 6.9 billion doses of capacity of all vaccines under development or approved in the first half of 2021 increasing to 14.2 billion doses of capacity in the second half of 2021. SeeUNICEF, COVID-19 vaccine market dashboard, https://www.unicef.org/supply/covid-19-vaccine-market-dashboard (capacity). Thus, there should be significant additional capacity available later in 2021 for vaccine doses needed for low- and middle-income countries.
Similarly, it is likely that as major countries like the United States, Canada, the European Union, the United Kingdom and others get their populations vaccinated, there will be significant volumes of vaccines that have been bought by these countries that can be distributed to other countries in the last months of 2021 and in 2022.
Some of these efforts may be undertaken in consultation or conjunction with COVAX.
COVAX is an important effort at facilitating vaccinating large parts of the world against the COVID-19 pandemic, including many low- and middle-income countries. Many countries and the EU have led efforts in 2020 to increase funding for the effort. With the Biden Administration rejoining the World Health Organization and reengaging with multilateral organizations, and with the support of the U.S. Congress in funding U.S. contributions to COVAX, this Thursday’s event co-hosted by the United States and Gavi is an important chance to help COVAX receive the additional funding needed for its 2021 objectives.
Because the pandemic continues to be problematic around the world, there are many moving parts to a successful global vaccination effort including availability of vaccines, efficacy of vaccines including against new variants, ability to overcome vaccine hesitancy among portions of the population in many countries and the evolving understanding of human reactions to some of the vaccines available.
Greater cooperation among health administrators and the WHO would seem important to ensure that safe vaccines are not derailed because of discovered risks where the balance of benefits to risks strongly supports continued availability and use of the vaccines (with appropriate warnings). Where restrictions are appropriate, greater cooperation would permit a common approach versus differing restrictions which can only serve to cause confusion to the public and encourage vaccine hesitancy. COVID-19 reported cases globally are presently 137 million with deaths approaching 3 million. Vaccination doses administered globally are 806 million with serious adverse reactions and deaths quite limited (likely in the thousands globally). Serious adverse reactions and deaths if tied to vaccines are obviously a concern that should be addressed appropriately. However, eliminating vaccine availability to large portions of populations where there are not other options available risk far greater damage.
- Terence Stewart, former Managing Partner, Law Offices of Stewart and Stewart, and author of the blog, Current Thoughts on Trade.
To read the original blog post from Terrence Stewart’s Current Thoughts On Trade, please click here